Global Food Prices Surge to Highest Levels in Nearly Four Years
Global food prices surged to their highest level in nearly four years in September, driven by disruptions in major trade routes and adverse weather conditions. The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported that its Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points last month, up from a revised 134.0 points in August. This marks the highest reading since November 2022.
The increase was primarily fueled by rising prices in cereals, sugar, and vegetable oils. The FAO noted that benchmarks for all three commodities rose during the month, while meat and dairy prices experienced a decline. Sugar prices were notably impacted by weather-related concerns, with fears of a severe El Niño pattern pushing international prices to an 18-month high. Additionally, wheat markets faced pressure due to a collapse in Black Sea trade, which drove wheat futures to a three-year peak early last month.
FAO chief economist Maximo Torero highlighted that the pressure on food commodities is linked to broader disruptions affecting transport and logistics. He stated, “We are seeing a persistent and increasingly broad-based build up in global commodity prices, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea combine with climate shocks, putting pressure on energy, transport and key food commodities.” Torero warned that if these pressures persist, they will likely translate into higher consumer food prices, particularly in countries dependent on food and energy imports.
August Also Saw Sharp Rise
The rise in September follows a notable increase in August, where the FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points, compared to a revised 130.8 points in July. This was also the highest level since November 2022, driven by extreme weather, geopolitical tensions, and trade route disruptions that raised concerns over supplies of key agricultural commodities. Despite the increases, the August index remained nearly 17% below its record level reached in March 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Cereal Output Remains High
The latest price data coincides with the FAO’s outlook for global cereal production. The organization maintained its 2026 production forecast at 2.979 billion metric tonnes, which is 2.1% below the previous year’s record but would still make 2026 the second-largest cereal harvest on record. However, the FAO lowered its forecast for world cereal trade in 2026/27 by 0.7%, citing reduced expectations for wheat and maize exports. This revision is largely attributed to constrained shipping routes in the Black Sea, further intensifying pressures across international agricultural commodity markets.
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