September Shipments via Hormuz Reach Post-War Peak Amid Increased LNG Cargo Activity
LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz surged in September, reaching its highest monthly level since the onset of the US-Israeli war on Iran. A total of 19 LNG cargoes traversed the vital waterway, despite ongoing security concerns. Data from S&P Global Energy indicates that 13 of these cargoes originated from Qatar, while six came from the United Arab Emirates.
The September figure surpassed the 15 cargoes recorded in June, coinciding with the implementation of a pact between the US and Iran. Eric Yep, a senior principal analyst at S&P Global Energy, noted that LNG transits accelerated in the latter half of September. If this trend continues into October, full-month transits could recover to 25% of pre-war levels.
Kpler Reports Higher Cargo Count
Kpler’s data presents an even higher tally, reporting 21 LNG cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz in September. This also reflects an increase from June’s figures. The tracking data revealed a rise in QatarEnergy-linked LNG vessels navigating the strait, despite the ongoing conflict. Three vessels from Qatar’s Ras Laffan export terminal were recently tracked outside the waterway.
Among these vessels, Al Kharaitiyat and Al Gharrafa were linked to QatarEnergy. Al Kharaitiyat was last detected in the strait between September 22 and 23 before reappearing off India’s west coast around September 29. Al Gharrafa similarly disappeared from tracking data in the strait before reemerging off India on September 30. The third vessel, Milaha Qatar, managed by Germany’s Pronav Ship Management, was last seen in the strait between September 17 and 21 before reappearing west of India on September 30.
Tracking Challenges Amid Security Concerns
Some vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz engage in “dark transits,” disabling their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to evade detection. The sustainability of increased LNG traffic through the strait during the winter months remains uncertain. Eric Yep emphasized that the continuation of LNG transits will depend on Iran’s military posture and the potential for escalation if higher exports are perceived as a loss of leverage.
The presence of US naval escorts for shipping convoys, despite the associated costs, will also play a crucial role in determining the future of LNG shipments through this critical waterway. Prior to the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was responsible for transporting approximately one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG supplies.
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