Gold and Silver Price Forecast: Analyst Insights on FY27 Trends

Precious metal prices in India are projected to maintain a moderately strong trajectory in the fiscal year 2026-27, driven by ongoing global uncertainties. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade war fears, and concerns about a potential global recession are expected to heighten the demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. However, high interest rates may pose a challenge to significant price increases.

Strong Performance in FY26

The fiscal year 2025-26 witnessed remarkable gains in precious metal prices. Silver futures surged by Rs 1,41,431, marking a staggering 142.2% increase from Rs 99,461 per kg on April 1, 2025. Gold also experienced a substantial rise, climbing by Rs 60,258, or 67%, from Rs 90,503 per 10 grams during the same period. This impressive performance was fueled by various global factors, including trade tensions stemming from tariff policies, geopolitical issues, robust central bank buying, limited supply, and overall economic uncertainty. Aamir Makda, a Commodity & Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, noted that the outlook for gold and silver remains moderately bullish due to the ongoing global economic challenges.

Despite these gains, the end of FY26 saw a notable correction in prices. In March, gold prices fell by Rs 11,343, or 7%, while silver dropped by Rs 41,752, or 15% on the Multi Commodity Exchange. Makda pointed out that historically, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset tends to increase during the second phase of conflict, especially when the dollar’s strength is limited. However, he cautioned that sustained high interest rates in the US and other major economies could hinder further price increases in bullion.

Silver’s Continued Strength

Silver’s robust performance in FY26 was bolstered by a persistent supply shortage that has lasted for five years. Additionally, rising demand from solar panel production and electric vehicles, along with increased investment through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), contributed to significant price movements in the smaller silver market. Looking ahead, silver is expected to remain moderately strong in FY27, with domestic prices projected to range between Rs 2.75 lakh and Rs 3.5 lakh per kg, depending on currency fluctuations. In global markets, silver prices could trade between $85 and $100 per ounce.

The demand for silver is anticipated to continue benefiting from these factors, with the market remaining sensitive to both industrial demand and investment trends. As the global economy navigates through uncertainties, the appeal of silver as a safe-haven asset is likely to persist, further supporting its price stability.

Gold Demand and Central Bank Purchases

For gold, central bank demand is expected to play a crucial role in supporting prices. It is estimated that central bank purchases will average between 750 and 850 tonnes in 2026, remaining stable into 2027. Countries such as India, Poland, and Turkey are leading the trend of replacing US dollar reserves with gold to enhance monetary sovereignty and mitigate the impact of geopolitical sanctions. This shift underscores the growing importance of gold in global financial strategies.

As the fiscal year progresses, the interplay between central bank buying and market dynamics will be pivotal in determining gold prices. The demand from these institutions is likely to provide a buffer against potential price declines, ensuring that gold remains a favored asset during times of uncertainty.

Market Influences and Future Outlook

In the crude oil sector, an increase in supply is anticipated in FY27, driven by higher production from non-OPEC countries and a slowdown in global demand. This development may contribute to reduced inflation, which could exert downward pressure on gold and silver prices. Additionally, a stronger rupee resulting from lower oil prices may make precious metals more affordable in India.

The US dollar’s instability, influenced by uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policy, could also impact precious metal prices. While a stronger dollar may limit gains, especially in silver, the overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic. Prices are expected to be supported by global risks, central bank purchases, and industrial demand, although volatility is likely to persist in the market. As investors navigate these complexities, the demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets will continue to be a focal point in the coming fiscal year.

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