India’s Crude Oil Imports from Russia Surge in October Following Previous Quarter Decline

In a significant development, India’s crude oil imports from Russia have rebounded in early October, reversing a three-month decline. This increase is driven by Indian refineries operating at full capacity to meet rising demand during the festive season. Ship tracking data indicates that shipments of Russian oil, particularly Urals, have gained momentum, supported by attractive discounts and reduced demand in Western markets.

Surge in Russian Oil Imports

After experiencing a drop from over 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in June to 1.6 million bpd in September, Russian oil imports to India have shown a resurgence. Preliminary data from global trade analytics firm Kpler suggests that October imports are tracking around 1.8 million bpd, an increase of approximately 250,000 bpd from the previous month. This uptick is attributed to Indian refiners ramping up operations to cater to the festive season’s heightened demand. The renewed interest in Russian oil comes amid attractive pricing and greater shipping flexibility, making it an appealing choice for Indian refineries.

Despite the increase in imports, the figures are subject to revision. This development follows a statement from former US President Donald Trump, who claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt Russian crude imports. However, India’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, stated he was unaware of any such agreement, indicating that the relationship between India and Russian oil remains strong.

Russia’s Dominance in India’s Oil Supply

In the first half of October, Russia retained its position as India’s largest crude oil supplier, with imports significantly outpacing those from other countries. Iraq followed with approximately 1.01 million bpd, while Saudi Arabia supplied around 830,000 bpd. The United States has now overtaken the UAE to become India’s fourth-largest supplier, providing 647,000 bpd, compared to the UAE’s 394,000 bpd. This shift highlights the growing importance of Russian crude in India’s energy landscape, which now accounts for about 34% of total imports.

The increase in Russian oil imports is not merely a seasonal fluctuation. It reflects a broader trend where India has increasingly relied on discounted Russian oil since the onset of Western sanctions against Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The share of Russian oil in India’s total imports has surged from 1.7% in 2019-20 to an impressive 40% in 2023-24.

Challenges of Diversification

While there is ongoing discussion about diversifying India’s oil supply sources, experts suggest that a sudden shift away from Russian crude would be challenging and costly. Indian refiners can technically handle various crude grades, but replacing Russian oil would require significant adjustments, including scaling up imports from multiple suppliers at higher costs. This transition could lead to inflation and reduced profitability for refineries.

Currently, Russian oil offers substantial discounts, averaging between USD 3.5-5 per barrel, making it difficult for refiners to overlook. The recent dip in imports during July to September was largely attributed to seasonal maintenance activities rather than tariff concerns. Analysts believe that unless directed by the government, Indian refiners are unlikely to abandon Russian oil, as it remains deeply integrated into their energy systems.

Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations

India’s energy policy emphasizes independence and balancing economic interests with diplomatic relationships. A sudden withdrawal from Russian crude would undermine this strategy and is unlikely unless formal sanctions are imposed. While there may be pressure to diversify, any reductions in Russian imports would likely be symbolic rather than substantial.

Experts suggest that if the US increases pressure, Indian refiners might make minor cuts to appease Western partners. However, logistical and economic challenges limit the potential for significantly increasing imports from the US. Current data indicates that Indian imports of US crude have risen to an average of 310,000 bpd in 2025, with expectations of reaching around 500,000 bpd in October. As India navigates these complexities, the focus remains on ensuring energy security while maintaining flexibility in its supply sources.

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