El Nino Effects: India’s Hydropower Generation Experiences Significant Decline, Increasing Pressure on Energy Grid
El Niño and a weak monsoon have significantly impacted India’s hydropower output, which fell by over 20% in June. The dry conditions have led to reduced water levels in reservoirs, straining the power grid during peak summer demand. Data from the India Meteorological Department indicates that cumulative rainfall across the country was 38% below normal until July 1, primarily due to El Niño’s influence on the southwest monsoon.
Hydropower Generation Sees Sharp Fall
According to the power ministry, electricity generation from hydroelectric projects dropped nearly 21% year-on-year in June, marking the steepest decline since February 2024. For the quarter ending in June, hydropower generation decreased almost 7%. In contrast, coal-fired, nuclear, and renewable energy plants increased output to meet the record electricity demand driven by extreme temperatures. As of July 2, reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission held 47.7 billion cubic meters of water, only about one-fourth of their total capacity, with levels 39% lower than the previous year.
Sowing Impacted
The rainfall deficit has also affected agricultural activities, particularly during the critical sowing season. Total acreage under kharif crops has declined by 21% this season due to subdued rainfall and delays in the southwest monsoon’s advance. As of July 6, the area sown under kharif crops was 350.85 lakh hectares, down from 442.8 lakh hectares during the same period last year. Paddy cultivation fell by 13%, while sowing of pulses and coarse cereals also decreased. Oilseeds experienced the most significant drop, with acreage shrinking to 66.31 lakh hectares from 109.27 lakh hectares a year earlier.
Monsoon Deficit: Some Ground Covered in July
India’s rainfall deficit narrowed to 20% in the first week of July as the southwest monsoon gained momentum, bringing widespread rainfall to central, western, and parts of southern India. Reservoir levels are expected to improve as the monsoon progresses, which will help replenish water storage and reduce electricity demand. However, the IMD projects that rainfall in July will remain below 94% of the long-term average, despite recent increases in precipitation.
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