India’s GDP Growth Estimates for FY 2024-25
The National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) has released the First Advance Estimates of the Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the financial year 2024-25. This report includes detailed expenditure components at both Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices. It also provides Annual Estimates of Gross Value Added (GVA) by economic activity, along with year-on-year percent changes. The estimates cover the financial years 2022-23, 2023-24, and 2024-25. The data is presented in Statements 1 to 4 of Annexure A.
Key Highlights of GDP Estimates
The latest estimates reveal significant insights into India’s economic performance. Real GDP is projected to grow by 6.4% in FY 2024-25, a decrease from the 8.2% growth rate recorded in the Provisional Estimate (PE) for FY 2023-24. In terms of Nominal GDP, a growth rate of 9.7% is anticipated for FY 2024-25, slightly up from 9.6% in the previous year.
The Gross Value Added (GVA) figures also reflect a similar trend. Real GVA is expected to grow by 6.4% in FY 2024-25, down from 7.2% in FY 2023-24. Nominal GVA is projected to increase by 9.3%, compared to 8.5% in the previous year. Notably, the GVA of the Agriculture and allied sectors is estimated to grow by 3.8%, a significant rise from the 1.4% growth recorded in FY 2023-24. The Construction sector and the Financial, Real Estate, and Professional Services sector are also expected to perform well, with growth rates of 8.6% and 7.3%, respectively.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) is projected to grow by 7.3% at Constant Prices, a notable increase from 4.0% in the previous financial year. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) is also rebounding, with an expected growth rate of 4.1%, up from 2.5% in FY 2023-24.
Annual GDP Estimates and Growth Rates
The estimates for Real GDP at Constant Prices indicate that it will reach ₹184.88 lakh crore in FY 2024-25, compared to the Provisional Estimate of ₹173.82 lakh crore for FY 2023-24. This represents a growth rate of 6.4%, down from 8.2% in the previous year. The Nominal GDP at Current Prices is expected to reach ₹324.11 lakh crore, reflecting a growth rate of 9.7% from ₹295.36 lakh crore in FY 2023-24.
Similarly, Real GVA is projected to be ₹168.91 lakh crore in FY 2024-25, showing a growth rate of 6.4% compared to the PE of ₹158.74 lakh crore for FY 2023-24. The Nominal GVA is estimated to reach ₹292.64 lakh crore, marking a growth rate of 9.3% from ₹267.62 lakh crore in the previous year. These figures underscore the resilience of the Indian economy, despite the anticipated slowdown in growth rates.
Methodology and Data Sources
The Advance Estimates of GDP are compiled using the benchmark-indicator method. This approach extrapolates estimates from the previous financial year (2023-24) using relevant indicators that reflect sector performance. Data from various Ministries, Departments, and Private Agencies are crucial for compiling these estimates.
Key indicators include the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), financial performance of listed companies, and agricultural production estimates. Other factors such as coal and petroleum production, railway traffic, and GST collections also play a significant role. The estimates are based on comprehensive data collection and analysis, ensuring accuracy and reliability.
It is important to note that these estimates may undergo revisions as improved data coverage and input data revisions are made by source agencies. The Second Advance Estimates of Annual GDP for FY 2024-25, along with quarterly GDP estimates for the October-December quarter, will be released on February 28, 2025. Users should consider these potential revisions when interpreting the figures.
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