IMD’s Accurate Cyclone Warnings Save Lives During Ditwah
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has showcased its remarkable forecasting capabilities during Cyclone Ditwah, which struck Tamil Nadu. From early warnings weeks before the cyclone formed to real-time updates, the IMD consistently delivered timely information that helped safeguard lives and property in the region.
On November 13, the IMD issued its first alert about the potential development of a depression over the Bay of Bengal, a full 13 days prior to the cyclone’s formation on November 26. The department’s extended-range outlook, released on November 20, reinforced the predictions with a 67-100% probability of cyclogenesis over the southern Bay of Bengal.
Continuous Updates and Alerts
As conditions evolved, IMD maintained a steady stream of updates. Beginning with special bulletins on November 23, the agency provided continuous warnings through its Cyclone Warning Division in New Delhi and regional centers in Chennai. The IMD issued a series of alerts including a Pre-cyclone watch at 9:45 AM IST on November 27 and further warnings as the cyclone approached.
Throughout the cycle’s duration, the IMD published a total of 51 National Bulletins, delivering critical data every few hours regarding the cyclone’s trajectory and intensity. These bulletins reached various stakeholders, including government officials in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, as well as fishermen and port authorities. In total, over 12.9 million messages were disseminated through the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), reinforcing the IMD’s commitment to keeping the public informed.
Accurate Forecasting and Reduced Errors
The IMD’s forecasts regarding the cyclone’s trajectory and intensity proved to be highly accurate, displaying a substantial improvement over previous years. The operational track forecast errors for different lead times were significantly lower than the historical averages, with errors of just 49 km at 24 hours, compared to an average of 72 km from 2020-2024. The department achieved forecasting skills of 79% to 91% across various time frames, a marked improvement from previous benchmarks.
The IMD also accurately projected wind speeds that reached gusts of up to 90 km/h and heavy rainfall across Tamil Nadu. The ability to predict extreme weather conditions allowed for timely intervention, significantly mitigating potential disaster risks.
Commitment to Enhancements
The IMD is continuously enhancing its capabilities, acknowledging that improving forecasting accuracy is an ongoing effort. Utilizing advanced numerical weather models, satellite data, and other technologies, the IMD strives to bridge any remaining gaps in its warning systems. The agency has seen a notable increase in track forecasting accuracy by 20-25% and a 35-45% improvement in landfall and intensity predictions in recent years.
In a bid to modernize its infrastructure, the Government of India launched Mission Mausam in early 2025. This mission aims to expand India’s weather monitoring network and advance forecasting capabilities, ensuring that citizens receive timely and reliable information about severe weather events.
Ultimately, the IMD’s proactive approach and effective communication strategies have contributed to significant reductions in loss of life and property during cyclones, underscoring its status as one of the top forecasting agencies globally.
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