Gold Price Forecast: November 21, 2025 Outlook
Gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, prompting traders to adopt a cautious approach. According to Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, the current market conditions suggest a strategy of selling on rallies. As gold futures hover around ₹1,22,624, the market is struggling to maintain momentum above critical resistance levels, indicating a potential shift towards bearish sentiment.
Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) are currently trading around ₹1,22,624, reflecting a consolidation phase. The market has shown difficulty in sustaining momentum above short-term resistance levels, which has led to a cautious outlook among traders. Recent price movements indicate a shift in sentiment, with many now favoring selling on rallies. Technical indicators are beginning to show signs of fatigue, particularly as gold prices approach the upper limits of their recent trading range.
The prevailing market conditions suggest that traders should be vigilant. A sustained move below ₹1,22,200 could trigger further selling pressure in the upcoming sessions. This bearish sentiment is reinforced by the current technical setup, which points to a weakening bias in gold prices.
Technical Analysis Overview
The technical indicators for gold are signaling a bearish trend. The short-term Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed below the longer-term EMA, indicating a loss of momentum. Resistance levels are identified between ₹1,22,700 and ₹1,22,850. If gold prices fail to maintain levels above this range, further downside pressure may ensue. Additionally, the Bollinger Bands indicate that gold prices have retreated from the upper band and are now testing the mid-band. This suggests a cooling phase in the recent upward movement, with potential selling interest likely to emerge near the resistance area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 45, reflecting a neutral-to-weak tone, which supports the sell-on-rise strategy. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned negative, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Intraday Trading Strategy
For traders looking to navigate the current gold market, a sell-on-rise strategy is recommended. The ideal entry zone is identified between ₹1,22,700 and ₹1,22,850, with a stop-loss set at ₹1,23,200. Traders should aim for downside targets of ₹1,22,100 and ₹1,21,900. The market bias remains bearish as long as prices stay below ₹1,22,850. If gold prices sustain below ₹1,22,200, the likelihood of intensified selling pressure increases.
This strategy aligns with the current market dynamics and technical indicators, which suggest that traders should be prepared for potential declines in gold prices.
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