NITI Aayog Releases Third Edition of “Trade Watch Quarterly” in New Delhi
Dr. Arvind Virmani, a member of NITI Aayog, unveiled the third edition of the “Trade Watch Quarterly” publication for the third quarter of the financial year 2025 on July 14, 2025, in New Delhi. This edition not only provides a detailed analysis of India’s trade performance but also highlights significant changes in U.S. tariff structures. These insights are crucial for understanding the shifting landscape of international trade and its impact on India’s export competitiveness.
India’s Trade Performance in Q3 FY25
India’s trade performance during the third quarter of FY25, covering October to December 2024, showcased a cautious resilience amid ongoing geopolitical challenges. Merchandise exports saw a modest increase of 3%, totaling $108.7 billion, while imports rose by 6.5%, reaching $187.5 billion. A notable services surplus of $52.3 billion, driven by a 17% growth in services exports, helped mitigate the trade deficit. This underscores India’s strengthening position in the global services economy. The export composition remained stable, with certain products, including aircraft and spacecraft parts, experiencing over 200% year-on-year growth. Furthermore, India emerged as the fifth-largest exporter globally, with $269 billion in Digitally Delivered Services (DDS) exports in 2024. High-tech merchandise exports have also gained traction since 2014, particularly in electrical machinery and arms/ammunition, which have shown robust growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.6%.
Focus on U.S. Trade and Tariff Structures
This quarter’s edition places a thematic emphasis on the evolving U.S. trade and tariff structures and their implications for India’s export competitiveness. India’s relative tariff advantage compared to major competitors presents a strategic opportunity to increase market share in the U.S. market, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and electrical machinery. The changing global trade environment necessitates agile policymaking to leverage new trade alignments effectively. Dr. Virmani noted that understanding these shifts is essential for enhancing India’s presence in key markets, especially in light of recent changes in U.S. trade policy.
Insights and Recommendations for Policymakers
During the launch, Dr. Virmani commended the team behind the publication for delivering a comprehensive analysis of the latest trade dynamics. He emphasized that India’s evolving trade engagement reflects significant advancements in the economy, driven by increased competitiveness, innovation, and strategic efforts to bolster its market presence. He also pointed out that in an era where global trade is being reshaped by geopolitical shifts, technological advancements, and policy uncertainties, this edition serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, industry leaders, and academics. It offers forward-looking recommendations aimed at enhancing trade facilitation and promoting stronger participation in global markets.
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