Researchers at IIT Kanpur (IIT-K) say the third wave of COVID-19 could peak in India by 3 February 2022.

According to a report published in the pre-print repository MedRxiv, the third wave of the pandemic, triggered by the new Omicron variant, “may start around mid-December and peak around the beginning of February.”

Researchers at IIT-K used a statistical tool called the Gaussian Mixture model to forecast the third wave, IANS reports.

The report used data from the first and second COVID waves in India and the increase of cases triggered by Omicron in several countries to predict the third wave.

In a statement, the IIT-K research team noted that their study “suggests the cases reach peak value 735 days after our original observation date, which is January 30, 2020 – when India reported its first official case of Covid-19.

Read Also: What do we know about COVID-19 OMICRON Variant?


The cases start rising around December 15, 2021, and the peak of the third wave will be on 3 February 2022″.

Members of the COVID-19 Supermodel Committee also predicted the third wave early next year.

Vidyasagar, the panel’s head and professor at IIT Hyderabad, said India will have the third wave Omicron, but it will be milder than the second.

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