OPEC’s Global Crude Market Share at Risk of Decline Without UAE Participation
UAE has officially exited OPEC, raising concerns about the future of the group’s energy production. The departure, effective May 1, 2026, has already impacted OPEC’s share of global crude oil output and production capacity, according to a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The report indicates that OPEC’s production, including the UAE, was estimated at 28 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, representing 35% of total global production. Without the UAE, that share would drop to 31%.
Impact on OPEC’s Production Capacity
The UAE’s exit is significant for the OPEC+ alliance, which accounted for approximately 46% of global crude oil production in 2025. Excluding the UAE, this figure would decrease to around 42%, emphasizing the country’s vital role in the bloc’s output. Saudi Arabia remains the largest member of OPEC, producing 9.3 million b/d in 2025, with a production capacity of 11.6 million b/d.
The UAE joined OPEC in 1967 and, as of 2025, held the third-largest crude oil production capacity within the group, following Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The country produced an average of 3.4 million b/d and had an effective production capacity of 4.2 million b/d in 2025.
Regional Disruptions and Challenges
The report also addresses the impact of ongoing conflicts in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which have disrupted oil production and exports in the region. EIA estimates suggest that production disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz could rise from 8.89 million b/d in March 2026 to 10.52 million b/d in April and 11.25 million b/d in May.
Iraq is projected to face production shut-ins of 3.19 million b/d in May 2026, while Saudi Arabia could experience disruptions of 3.29 million b/d. Kuwait may see shut-ins of 1.98 million b/d, and the UAE could face disruptions of 1.35 million b/d during the same period. The report notes that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are the only regional OPEC countries capable of rerouting crude oil exports around the Strait of Hormuz amid these disruptions.
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