Global Air Travel Set to Surge by 2053
MUMBAI: The Airports Council International (ACI) World has released a new forecast predicting a dramatic increase in global air travel over the next three decades. By 2043, global passenger numbers are expected to reach 17.7 billion, and by 2053, that figure could soar to 22.3 billion. This growth is nearly 2.4 times the projected volume for 2024, driven by rising demand from emerging markets and ongoing investments in airport infrastructure.
Steady Growth Amid Challenges
According to ACI’s report, which encompasses 99.8% of global markets across 161 countries, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global passenger traffic is projected at 3.4% from 2024 to 2043. This growth rate is expected to slow slightly to 3% from 2024 to 2053. Despite the optimistic long-term outlook, the aviation sector faces short-term challenges, including geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and supply chain disruptions. These factors could hinder recovery in certain regions. Justin Erbacci, ACI World Director General, emphasized the importance of proactive measures in the industry. “Despite the challenges in the near term, global air travel is poised for steady, sustained growth,” he stated. He urged airports, airlines, and policymakers to take bold actions to prepare for future demands.
International vs. Domestic Traffic Growth
The forecast indicates that international passenger traffic will outpace domestic traffic growth over the next three decades. From 2024 to 2053, international traffic is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.3%, while domestic traffic will increase at a slower rate of 2.8%. This trend highlights the increasing global interconnectedness and the rising appetite for international travel, particularly in emerging markets where a growing middle class is driving demand.
Infrastructure Investments Essential for Future Growth
The report also underscores the critical need for investments in airport infrastructure to accommodate the anticipated surge in passenger numbers. By 2043, the number of aircraft movements is projected to reach 149 million, increasing to 176 million by 2053. Airports worldwide must enhance operational efficiency and invest in infrastructure to manage this growth effectively. ACI’s latest report introduces a new forecasting methodology based on advanced machine learning techniques, aiming to provide more accurate predictions for the evolving aviation landscape.
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