Crude Oil Prices Plunge Below $100: Brent and WTI Reach Two-Month Lows Following Trump’s Midterm Election Loss
Oil prices continued to decline on Thursday, with Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) both falling below the $100-per-barrel mark. Brent crude futures dropped to $94.12 a barrel, down 50 cents or 0.53%, while WTI fell to $87.51, a decline of 61 cents or 0.69%. This downward trend follows a significant sell-off on Wednesday, where both benchmarks lost over 8%, marking their lowest levels in more than two months.
Market reactions stemmed from the political fallout of the recent US midterm elections, which saw Republicans lose control of Congress. This shift has raised expectations that President Donald Trump may face increased pressure to negotiate an end to the ongoing conflict with Iran. With Democrats now controlling both the House of Representatives and the Senate, Trump may find it more challenging to pursue military action. Sources close to Gulf government circles indicated that this weakened political position could lead to a greater push for a negotiated settlement, making a full-scale assault on Iran less likely.
However, analysts caution that a potential deal does not eliminate the risk of further escalation. Gulf analysts suggest that an agreement allowing Iran to claim victory while leaving Trump politically weakened could lead to reckless behavior rather than restraint.
Trump Faces Pressure as War Weighs on Republicans
Earlier this week, Trump stated to the Financial Times that there were no immediate plans for a US strike on Iran. He later acknowledged that the conflict had played a role in the Republican Party’s significant losses in the midterm elections. Vice President JD Vance also expressed doubts about the decision to enter the war, attributing the electoral setback entirely to the conflict. Meanwhile, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei asserted that American hostility would persist regardless of which party holds power in Washington.
In related developments, Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for targeting King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, further complicating the regional situation.
Qatar Steps Up Mediation as Iran Deal Remains Distant
Diplomatic efforts to mitigate tensions have intensified, with Qatar increasing its mediation efforts following the US elections. However, the likelihood of an immediate breakthrough remains uncertain. Concurrently, regional energy flows are facing disruptions, prompting the United Arab Emirates to explore options for reducing its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, including the consideration of a third oil pipeline.
In the US, oil stockpiles saw a decline last week, with the Energy Information Administration reporting a drop of 865,000 barrels to 409.8 million barrels for the week ending October 30. This figure contrasts sharply with expectations from a Reuters poll, which had forecast an increase of 877,000 barrels.
