Gold and Silver Prices Ahead of Dhanteras 2026: Should Investors Buy Now, Wait, or Consider Alternatives?
Indian shoppers are poised for a favorable Dhanteras as gold and silver prices have recently declined, providing an opportunity for festive purchases. After reaching record highs earlier this year, both metals have seen significant price drops, making this an ideal time for consumers to consider buying. The tradition of purchasing precious metals during Dhanteras is deeply rooted in Indian culture, symbolizing prosperity and good fortune.
Gold and Silver Prices: Recent Trends
Gold and silver prices have experienced a dramatic fall since their peaks in January 2026. Gold, which reached Rs 1,75,231 per 10 grams, has now dipped below Rs 1.5 lakh. Silver, which soared to Rs 3,84,632 per kg, has lost nearly half its value, currently hovering around Rs 2 lakh per kg. Internationally, gold is under pressure at around $4,000 per ounce, while silver has fluctuated around $50 per ounce.
The decline in prices can be attributed to profit booking by investors following the earlier rally. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, have driven crude oil prices above $120 per barrel, raising inflation concerns. This environment has led to expectations of prolonged higher interest rates from the US Federal Reserve, making non-interest-bearing assets like gold and silver less attractive compared to bonds.
Future Outlook for Gold and Silver
While gold and silver have lost some of their appeal, analysts suggest that the worst may not be over yet. Vedika Narvekar, a research analyst at Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers, indicates that both metals could face further short-term challenges. Gold is expected to trade between $3,950 and $4,200 per ounce internationally, or Rs 1,40,600 to Rs 1,48,500 on the MCX, with potential downside risks if oil prices remain high.
For silver, Narvekar anticipates a tougher path due to its dual role as both an investment and an industrial metal. She expects silver prices to test $48 to $50 per ounce internationally, or Rs 1.70 to Rs 1.80 lakh per kg on the MCX. A gradual recovery towards $70 per ounce is possible by 2027, driven by demand in sectors like electronics and solar energy, but a return to earlier peaks appears unlikely.
Timing Your Purchase: Buy Now or Wait?
With Dhanteras approaching, many consumers are weighing the decision to buy gold and silver now or wait for further price drops. Experts advise that while the recent price decline may seem advantageous, trying to time the market can be risky. Ayush Verma, director of Annapurna Jewellers Pvt. Ltd, emphasizes the importance of prioritizing affordability and personal financial needs over attempting to predict market movements.
Adhil Shetty, CEO of BankBazaar, views the current price correction as a natural pause rather than a precursor to a major downturn. He suggests that buying in moderation, rather than waiting for the lowest price, is often a more prudent approach for festive buyers. For those focused on investment, Hetal Vakil Valia recommends allocating around 40% to 50% of their planned budget during Dhanteras, keeping the remainder liquid for future opportunities.
Shopping Tips for Dhanteras
As consumers prepare for Dhanteras, several factors should be considered when purchasing gold and silver. First, buyers should evaluate whether to invest in gold or silver based on their risk tolerance and investment goals. Gold is generally seen as a safer option for wealth preservation, while silver may offer higher returns but comes with greater volatility.
When deciding between jewellery, coins, or bars, those looking for investment returns might find coins and bars more cost-effective due to lower making charges. For buyers interested in jewellery, factors such as design, purity, and hallmarking should be closely examined to ensure value beyond the initial purchase price.
For those who prefer not to handle physical metals, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide a way to invest in gold and silver without the associated storage concerns. However, it is crucial to compare fees and market risks associated with these digital investment options.
Recommended Investment Allocation
Experts recommend a cautious approach to investing in precious metals. Ayush Verma suggests maintaining 5% to 15% of an investment portfolio in gold and silver, depending on individual financial goals. Adhil Shetty advocates for a conservative allocation of 5% to 10%, while Hetal Vakil Valia recommends a 10% to 25% allocation, with a preference for gold as the larger component due to its stability.
Investors should ensure that their precious metal holdings complement other investments, such as equities and fixed deposits, rather than replacing them.
