Today’s Gold Price Forecast: Are Gold and Silver Prices Set to Remain Range-Bound?
Gold prices in India have shown resilience despite global market fluctuations. According to Vedika Narvekar, a Research Analyst at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, while gold and silver prices are experiencing some weakness, domestic gold prices have remained relatively stable. This stability comes amid a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and shifting interest rate expectations.
Gold’s price dynamics have been influenced by various factors, including US-Iran negotiations and the performance of the US Dollar Index. After reaching record highs above $5,500 per ounce earlier this year, gold prices corrected sharply in March and remained volatile throughout April. In May, gold traded within a tight range of $4,450 to $4,580 per ounce. Recently, it managed to recover nearly $150 from lows near $4,366 per ounce, buoyed by hopes for diplomatic progress between the US and Iran, as well as a weaker US dollar. However, the recovery has not established a definitive upward trend.
For Indian investors, the situation is complicated by a significant increase in gold import duties, which rose from 6% to 15%, raising the effective tax burden to 18.45%. This change has led to a sharp decline in gold demand, reportedly dropping by nearly 70% to around 7.5 tonnes in the fortnight following the duty increase, compared to 25 tonnes during the same period last year.
Gold Price Outlook: Focus for the Week
Market attention this week will center on US-Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and US macroeconomic data that could impact Federal Reserve policy expectations. The upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls report is anticipated to be a key driver for gold prices. Strong job growth and rising wages could lead to increased Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar, putting additional pressure on gold.
Current market sentiment leans toward a bearish outlook, with elevated real yields continuing to affect non-yielding assets like gold. In addition to the payrolls report, traders will monitor the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI data for further insights.
Technical Levels & Near-Term Outlook
Gold’s current spot price is $4,460 per ounce, with support levels at $4,380 and $4,300, while resistance is seen at $4,570 and $4,640. In the Indian market, MCX gold is priced at ₹1,59,054, with support at ₹1,56,000 and ₹1,53,100, and resistance at ₹1,62,700 and ₹1,65,200. Gold has faced three consecutive monthly declines, pressured by high bond yields and outflows from bullion-backed ETFs. The balance between concerns over slowing economic growth and persistent inflation risks is likely to keep gold’s near-term direction range-bound.
Silver Price Outlook
The outlook for silver remains weak in the near term due to macroeconomic conditions. However, long-term demand prospects are positive, driven by increasing applications in solar energy, electronics, electric vehicles, and advanced technologies. The current international silver price is $74.50 per ounce, with support at $71.80 and $69.30, and resistance at $78.50 and $82.50. In the Indian market, MCX silver is priced at ₹2,65,100, with support at ₹2,55,600 and ₹2,46,700, and resistance at ₹2,79,500 and ₹2,93,700.
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