Reliance Industries’ Surge: RIL Gains Rs 4.4 Lakh Crore in 2025 Amid Telecom and O2C Growth
After a challenging year in 2024, Reliance Industries is experiencing a remarkable resurgence, reminiscent of its post-COVID recovery in 2020. The company’s stock has surged over 26% in 2025, adding approximately ₹4.4 lakh crore to its market valuation, which now stands at nearly ₹21 lakh crore. This impressive growth has been fueled by a combination of factors across its energy, telecom, and retail sectors, culminating in a 52-week high stock price of ₹1,557.95.
Analysts attribute Reliance’s stock surge to a unique convergence of favorable conditions. Key drivers include improving refining margins, tariff increases in the telecom sector, robust retail performance, and various value-unlocking initiatives. Brokerages monitoring the company report that these factors are beginning to positively impact earnings visibility. Jefferies, a prominent brokerage, has significantly raised its target enterprise value for Reliance Jio to $180 billion, forecasting an 18% and 21% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue and EBITDA, respectively, from FY26 to FY28. The firm cites rising tariffs, growth in fixed wireless broadband, expansion of the enterprise business, and monetization of Jio’s technology stack as critical catalysts for this optimistic outlook.
Telecom Sector as a Key Accelerator
Market expert Sudip Bandyopadhyay highlights the telecom segment as a primary growth engine for Reliance. He anticipates that the upcoming quarterly results will reflect positive outcomes as the benefits of increased average revenue per user (ARPU) materialize. Bandyopadhyay also suggests that another ARPU hike before the fiscal year concludes could provide additional momentum. Furthermore, he notes that the anticipated announcement regarding Jio’s listing in the first half of the next calendar year could generate further excitement among investors. This potential value-unlocking event is expected to significantly influence the stock’s performance.
Improvements in Oil-to-Chemicals Segment
The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment, which has faced challenges in recent years, is showing signs of recovery. UBS reports that refining margins in Asia have strengthened due to healthy fundamentals, refinery maintenance, seasonal fluctuations, and geopolitical factors. The firm expects margins to moderate slightly as refineries resume operations but anticipates that above mid-cycle spreads will persist amid project delays. UBS projects O2C EBITDA to rise from ₹295 billion in the first half to ₹340 billion in the second half of FY26, with further growth to ₹648 billion in FY27. The brokerage maintains a “Buy” rating on Reliance with a target price of ₹1,820.
Future Outlook and Shareholder Impact
Reliance recently announced a halt on imports of Russian crude for its export-only Jamnagar refinery in response to European Union sanctions. However, Bandyopadhyay believes this will not adversely affect profitability, citing favorable gross refining margins. He also emphasizes the potential for value unlocking in the retail sector, which has grown significantly. With the convergence of telecom advancements, O2C recovery, retail expansion, and new energy initiatives, analysts expect the positive momentum to continue. For the company’s 4.4 million shareholders, this turnaround represents a significant shift from the volatility experienced in 2024. If the identified catalysts materialize, the stock’s rally in 2025 may have further room to grow.
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