Humanoid Robots: The World Is Not Ready Yet
Famed roboticist and iRobot founder Rodney Brooks has raised concerns about a potential investment bubble in humanoid robots. In a recent essay, he highlighted the substantial venture capital flowing into companies like Figure, cautioning that despite the financial backing, these robots may struggle to achieve the dexterity required for practical applications. This skepticism is echoed by other experts in the field, who predict that widespread adoption of humanoid robots is still years away, if not more than a decade.
The Issues Surrounding Humanoid Robots
Fady Saad, a general partner at Cybernetix Ventures and a former co-founder of MassRobotics, expressed doubts about the market viability of humanoid robots. He noted that while some may be impressed by recent advancements, there remains a cautious outlook regarding their practical applications and revenue generation. Saad emphasized the importance of safety, particularly in scenarios where humanoid robots and humans coexist, such as on factory floors or in domestic settings. He raised concerns about the potential risks posed by humanoids, especially if they were to malfunction or fall, potentially harming pets or children. Saad questioned public comfort levels with having humanoids in their homes, citing fears of hacking or erratic behavior. He believes these safety issues are significant hurdles that are often overlooked in discussions about the future of humanoid robots.
The timeline for the development of humanoid technology is also uncertain, which poses challenges for venture capitalists who need to see returns on their investments. The lack of clarity surrounding when these robots will be ready for widespread use adds to the skepticism in the industry.
Challenges in Development Timelines
Sanja Fidler, vice president of AI research at Nvidia, compared the current excitement surrounding humanoid robots to the early days of self-driving cars. She noted that while the interest is palpable, it took several years for self-driving technology to mature, and full autonomy remains elusive. Nvidia’s chief scientist, Bill Dally, echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the complexity involved in developing humanoid robots. Seth Winterroth, a partner at Eclipse, highlighted the intricacies of programming humanoids, which require advanced movement capabilities. He pointed out that while technological advancements are exciting, the path to fully functional humanoids is long and complicated.
Tesla’s experience with its humanoid robot, Optimus, illustrates the challenges faced by companies in this sector. Initially announced in 2021, the robot’s introduction was delayed, and when it finally debuted in 2024, it was revealed that human operators were controlling the bots off-screen. Tesla now aims to start selling the robots in 2026. Similarly, Figure, which recently achieved a valuation of $39 billion, faces skepticism regarding the actual deployment of its humanoids, although the company defends its claims.
Potential and Progress in Humanoid Technology
Despite the challenges, experts believe that humanoid robots will eventually find a market. Rodney Brooks himself remains optimistic about the future of humanoids, although he predicts that they may not resemble the human-like forms currently envisioned. Instead, he anticipates that future robots will likely have wheels and other non-human features, with significant advancements still more than a decade away.
Several startups are actively working on the dexterity technology that Brooks doubts humanoids will achieve. Companies like Y Combinator-backed Proception and Loomia are developing solutions to incorporate touch into robotic systems. Additionally, some humanoid companies are already generating interest and taking orders. K-Scale Labs reported over 100 pre-orders for its humanoid bot within just five days, surprising its founders. Hugging Face also experienced strong demand for its humanoid bots, with $1 million in sales logged shortly after opening pre-orders for its Reachy Mini robots. These developments indicate that while the road ahead may be long, there is a growing interest in humanoid technology.
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