US Retailers Anticipate Black Friday Boost as Shoppers Seek Deals Amid Weak Sentiment
Black Friday has evolved from a midnight shopping frenzy into a more measured start to the holiday shopping season, yet it remains the busiest day for in-store traffic in the United States. This year, consumer confidence has dipped due to factors like a federal government shutdown and persistent inflation, as reported by The Conference Board. Retailers note that shoppers are becoming more selective and focused on deals, even as they continue to spend on significant seasonal purchases, creating a phenomenon described as a “halo effect” in consumer behavior.
Shoppers Adapt to Economic Challenges
As the holiday shopping season kicks off, many consumers are navigating a landscape marked by economic uncertainty. Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, observed that despite negative sentiments about the economy, consumer spending remains robust. At Macy’s Herald Square in New York City, early-morning shoppers flocked to the store, eager to find discounts on various items, including shoes and clothing. The atmosphere, however, was notably calmer compared to previous years, reflecting a shift in shopping habits.
Veronica Nam, a 68-year-old shopper, shared her experience of purchasing Nike sneakers and Lacoste bedding, highlighting her decision to postpone buying gifts for other relatives until after Christmas. She cited rising food prices and fluctuating tariffs as factors influencing her spending choices. Meanwhile, 19-year-old Nicholas Menasche, shopping with his mother, expressed his intention to spend around $1,200 this holiday season, maintaining his budget from the previous year. His excitement about the tradition of early shopping underscores the enduring appeal of Black Friday.
Retailers Face Price Hikes and Tariff Uncertainty
Retailers have been grappling with the complexities of tariff unpredictability and rising costs throughout the year. Data from Circana indicates that 40% of general merchandise experienced price increases of at least 5% in September compared to early 2025. Categories such as toys, housewares, and sports gear have been particularly affected, with a staggering 83% of toys seeing similar price hikes. The impact of tariffs, especially on products manufactured in China, has been significant, as nearly 80% of U.S. toy sales involve these imports.
Despite these challenges, many malls and analysts reported a positive outlook as they approached Black Friday. Jill Renslow, chief business development and marketing officer at Minnesota’s Mall of America, noted that foot traffic had surpassed pre-pandemic levels in recent weeks, indicating a strong start to the holiday season. Retailers have been proactive, shifting shipments and absorbing some costs to keep prices stable, aiming to attract consumers during this critical shopping period.
Online Shopping Trends and Projections
The trend of online shopping continues to gain momentum as consumers increasingly turn to digital platforms for their holiday purchases. According to Adobe Analytics, online spending between November 1 and November 23 reached $79.7 billion, marking a 7.5% increase from the previous year and surpassing initial forecasts. This growth reflects a broader shift in consumer behavior, with many opting for the convenience of online shopping over traditional in-store experiences.
Looking ahead, Mastercard SpendingPulse projects that holiday sales from November 1 to December 24 will rise by 3.6%, a slight decline from last year’s 4.1% growth. Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at Mastercard, acknowledged the prevailing uncertainty among consumers but noted that it has not significantly deterred their participation in the holiday shopping season. As retailers adapt to changing consumer preferences and economic conditions, the holiday season remains a crucial period for both in-store and online sales.
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