Gold Price Forecast: Insights on September 26, 2025, and the Rationale Behind a ‘Sell on Rise’ Strategy
In today’s trading session, gold prices are signaling a cautious approach, with experts recommending a “sell-on-rise” strategy. Jateen Trivedi, Vice President of Research at LKP Securities, indicates that current market conditions suggest limited upside potential for gold. As gold futures hover around ₹1,13,940, traders are advised to monitor resistance levels closely, especially in light of upcoming U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.
Current Market Dynamics
Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) are experiencing volatility, trading at approximately ₹1,13,940. The price action indicates signs of exhaustion near key resistance levels. With global markets remaining cautious ahead of significant U.S. economic reports, there is noticeable selling pressure on gold during price rallies. Traders are encouraged to adopt a sell-on-rise strategy, particularly when prices approach the range of ₹1,13,700 to ₹1,13,900. A stop-loss should be set at ₹1,14,325, with the aim of targeting lower levels around ₹1,13,400 and ₹1,13,200.
Technical Analysis Overview
The technical setup for gold reveals several indicators that suggest a bearish outlook. The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) show that the EMA 8 is trading below the EMA 21, indicating weak short-term momentum. Any upward movement towards resistance zones should be viewed as an opportunity to sell unless prices can reclaim and sustain above ₹1,14,325. Additionally, the Bollinger Bands indicate that gold is trading near the mid-band after a recent decline, with resistance likely to cap any upside moves around ₹1,13,900 to ₹1,14,000.
The previous day’s pivot points reveal resistance levels at ₹1,13,900 and ₹1,14,325, while support levels are identified at ₹1,13,400 and ₹1,13,200. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 56, suggesting a mild recovery, but it remains below overbought territory. This indicates that any rallies may encounter selling pressure before gaining further momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, although it is attempting a crossover, reinforcing the weak bias until a strong confirmation emerges.
Strategic Recommendations for Traders
For intraday traders, the recommended strategy is to sell on rises, particularly when prices approach the entry zone of ₹1,13,700 to ₹1,13,900. A stop-loss should be firmly placed at ₹1,14,325 to manage risk effectively. The anticipated downside targets are set at ₹1,13,400 and ₹1,13,200. The overall market bias remains bearish below the resistance level of ₹1,13,900, with a potential reversal only occurring if prices exceed ₹1,14,325. Traders are advised to remain vigilant and adjust their strategies according to market movements and technical indicators.
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