Soviet Venus Probe Kosmos 482 Prepares for Earth Re-Entry After 53 Years
Kosmos 482, a spacecraft launched by the USSR in 1972 as part of the Venera program, has been orbiting Earth since a malfunction prevented its intended mission to Venus. This resilient spacecraft is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere around May 10, with scientists closely monitoring its trajectory. The Aerospace Corporation is utilizing radar data from the U.S. Space Network to track its descent, raising questions about where it might land and what implications its return could have.
When and Where Might It Land?
Current forecasts from the European Space Agency (ESA) indicate that Kosmos 482 is projected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere on Saturday, May 10, at approximately 12:37 PM EST, with a potential error margin of ±20.6 hours. Due to its orbital inclination of 52 degrees, the spacecraft could land in a variety of locations, including parts of Australia, South America, and Africa, as well as over the oceans that cover these regions. The re-entry zone spans between 52 degrees North and 52 degrees South, and given that about 70% of the Earth’s surface is water, there is a significant chance that it may fall into the ocean.
What Happens If It Survives Reentry?
If Kosmos 482 successfully survives its reentry, it is expected to descend at speeds ranging from 150 to 250 kilometers per hour. The spacecraft’s structure remains largely unchanged after 53 years in space, measuring about 1 meter in diameter and weighing approximately 495 kilograms. However, scientists believe that the parachute system, which could have aided in a controlled landing, is likely no longer functional after decades in orbit. This raises concerns about how the spacecraft will impact the surface upon landing.
Exact Timing Becomes Challenging
The timing of Kosmos 482’s reentry is complicated by solar activities, such as solar storms, which can disrupt radar data and affect predictions. According to expert Langbroek, the unpredictable nature of solar phenomena makes it challenging to determine the exact timing of reentry until the last moment. As scientists continue to analyze the data, they remain vigilant in their efforts to provide the most accurate forecasts possible.
Risk to the Public Is Low
Experts have assessed the risk to the public as minimal, estimating only a 0.4% chance of injury or death from the reentry of Kosmos 482. The spacecraft is expected to descend as a single object, minimizing the risk of debris scattering upon impact. However, should anyone encounter the spacecraft upon landing, authorities advise that individuals should keep their distance and report the sighting to local officials rather than attempting to approach or touch it.
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