China’s Carbon Emissions Show Signs of Decline, Raising Hopes for Global Climate Efforts
As the global community intensifies efforts to combat climate change, China has made a significant breakthrough by reducing its carbon emissions for the first time while simultaneously experiencing a surge in energy demand. This milestone, noted in the 12 months leading up to May 2025, marks a pivotal moment in the country’s environmental trajectory. Historically, emissions have only decreased during economic downturns, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. With China accounting for approximately 30% of global emissions, this development is crucial for international climate goals.
China’s Green Energy Revolution
The recent decline in emissions can largely be attributed to China’s aggressive investments in renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar power. According to Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, China has installed over half of the global capacity for solar and wind energy in recent years. He highlighted that the solar capacity added by China last year alone is comparable to the total installed capacity across the European Union, showcasing an extraordinary pace of growth.
In April 2025, wind and solar energy collectively generated more than 25% of China’s electricity for the first time, a significant shift for a nation historically reliant on coal. During the first four months of 2025, electricity generation from fossil fuels decreased by 3.6% compared to the same period in the previous year. Despite this progress, experts caution that coal will continue to play a vital role in China’s energy landscape for the foreseeable future, as renewable sources alone cannot provide a consistent energy supply. Furthermore, Chinese companies dominate the global market for renewable energy technologies, producing approximately 60% of wind turbines and 80% of solar panels worldwide. However, this rapid expansion has raised concerns about environmental and social impacts, particularly in regions where mining for transition minerals occurs.
China’s Position in Global Emissions
While China is making strides in renewable energy, its overall energy mix remains similar to that of many Western nations. For instance, renewable sources accounted for 46.3% of the UK’s energy generation, while the United States, the second-largest emitter of carbon, generates just over 20% from renewables. Historically, many developed countries began reducing their emissions long before China, transitioning away from coal and energy-intensive manufacturing processes.
China has often pointed to the emissions trajectories of wealthier nations, arguing that its current path mirrors theirs during their economic development phases. In contrast, both China and India have seen significant increases in emissions as their economies have grown. Notably, per capita emissions in China and India are still lower than those in the United States, although China’s per capita emissions have surpassed those of the UK and the European Union, aligning more closely with Japan’s figures.
The Future of China’s Emissions
Despite the recent decline in emissions, experts warn that this does not guarantee a sustained downward trend. Li Shuo from the Asia Society Policy Institute cautions that China could maintain its current emission levels for an extended period, which would not contribute positively to global climate efforts. External factors, such as geopolitical tensions and energy security concerns, could also influence China’s energy policies. For instance, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has heightened China’s focus on securing its energy supplies, potentially leading to a renewed reliance on coal.
Conversely, Christoph Nedopil Wang from the Griffith Asia Institute suggests that China’s dominance in renewable energy could encourage a shift towards cleaner energy sources, enhancing national security by reducing dependence on energy imports. Current trade tensions and a sluggish economy may also deter Beijing from stimulating growth in ways that would lead to increased carbon emissions. Policymakers are likely to prioritize low-emission sectors, such as information technology, biotechnology, electric vehicles, and clean energy technologies, which are expected to expand in the coming years.
Looking ahead, China faces significant challenges in meeting its international climate commitments under the Paris Agreement. The country aims to reduce its carbon intensity by over 65% from 2005 levels by 2030, with an interim target of an 18% reduction between 2020 and 2025. However, progress has stalled due to the pandemic, with only a 7.9% reduction achieved by the end of 2024. Experts emphasize that for China to meet its 2030 goals, it must achieve absolute reductions in emissions moving forward. As the global landscape shifts, there is potential for China to adopt a more proactive role in international climate policy, positioning itself as a leader in the fight against climate change.
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