Paytm Achieves Milestone as Share Price Surpasses Rs 1,900 for the First Time Since 2021 Listing
Shares of One 97 Communications, the parent company of Paytm, rose 7.31% on Thursday, reaching a closing price of Rs 1,925. This marks the first time the stock has surpassed the Rs 1,900 threshold since its listing in 2021. Currently, the shares are just Rs 25 below their initial listing price of Rs 1,950 on the National Stock Exchange and have gained over 49% year-to-date.
The surge in Paytm’s stock price is partly attributed to expectations surrounding a new merchant discount rate (MDR) framework for Unified Payments Interface (UPI) transactions. Last month, the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) postponed the proposed MDR levy until after Diwali, just two days before its planned implementation date of October 15 for select UPI transactions. The proposed MDR is set at 40 basis points on person-to-merchant (P2M) UPI transactions exceeding Rs 2,000.
Analysts view Paytm as one of the biggest potential beneficiaries of the MDR regime, anticipating that revenue from UPI MDR could reach Rs 1,160 crore for the company by FY28. Paytm has indicated that the introduction of this fee would generate additional revenue from its merchant business, which previously offered several payment transactions free of charge.
In related news, MSCI has included four Indian companies in its Global Standard index and increased the weights of 11 other stocks in its upcoming November index review. These changes will enhance India’s representation in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The revisions will take effect at the close of trading on November 30.
Global brokerage Bernstein has identified Paytm as its “Top pick,” citing the expansion of merchant lending and operating leverage as key drivers for earnings growth. Bernstein has maintained an Outperform rating on Paytm, setting a target price of Rs 2,200. The brokerage projects that Paytm’s revenue will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% from FY26 to FY30, with payments and financial services contributing significantly to this growth. During the same period, EBITDA is expected to increase from around Rs 5 billion to approximately Rs 70 billion, driven by improved operating leverage across the business.
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