Gold Price Outlook: What to Expect for the Week of August 11, 2025 – Buy or Sell Recommendations
Gold prices have recently reached an unprecedented high in the domestic market, driven by a combination of economic factors including expectations of interest rate cuts and uncertainties surrounding tariffs. As analysts predict a range-bound movement for gold prices in the coming days, investors are advised to stay informed about key economic indicators and geopolitical developments that could impact the market.
Recent Surge in Gold Prices
Last week, gold prices surged to an all-time high in India, influenced by various economic signals. Expectations of a potential cut in interest rates, coupled with a disappointing US jobs report, have created a favorable environment for gold. The dollar index remained stable within a narrow range of approximately 98 to 99, while US yields faced downward pressure. This situation arose despite strong consumer confidence data, which was overshadowed by weak job growth in July and downward revisions to previous payroll figures. These factors have collectively pointed to a weakening labor market, further supporting the bullish trend in gold prices.
Market Reactions to Tariff News
Towards the end of last week, confusion arose when reports surfaced about a 39% US tariff on Swiss gold bars weighing 1 kg and 100 ounces. This news initially caused a spike in gold prices, but the White House quickly clarified that the reports were false, leading to a subsequent pullback in prices. In the midst of these developments, President Trump announced plans to meet with Russian President Putin on August 15 to discuss the ongoing Ukraine conflict, while trade negotiations with China are approaching a critical deadline on August 12. Additionally, Trump is expected to nominate economist Miran as the new Federal Reserve Governor following Jerome Powell’s retirement.
Demand and Economic Indicators
Physical demand for gold in Asia saw an uptick early in the week but later declined due to high prices. Meanwhile, disappointing inflation data from China has put pressure on industrial metals, including silver. As the market looks ahead, attention will shift to crucial US economic data, including inflation rates, retail sales, and industrial production figures. Analysts suggest that if the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data exceeds expectations, it may indicate that the impact of tariffs is beginning to reflect in prices. This could potentially alter interest rate cut expectations for the remainder of the year and into the next.
Outlook for Gold Prices
Looking forward, analysts predict that gold prices will remain range-bound between ₹99,500 and ₹1,02,000. This week is expected to be shortened due to holidays, making movements in the USD/INR exchange rate particularly significant. Investors are advised to keep a close watch on President Trump’s comments regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation and updates on tariffs involving India and China. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India’s recent actions, which have led to a drop in forex reserves to their lowest level since 2025, indicate an active role in managing the market and the USD/INR fluctuations.
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