Gold Price Forecast for July 25, 2025: Understanding the ‘Sell on Rise’ Strategy
Gold prices are facing downward pressure as analysts predict a bearish outlook for the near term. Currently trading around ₹98,749, gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) have experienced a significant decline over the past two days. With key technical indicators suggesting limited upside potential, traders are advised to adopt a “Sell on Rise” strategy, particularly in the ₹99,000 range, while maintaining a stop-loss at ₹99,450.
Current Market Trends
Gold futures have been under considerable pressure, reflecting a broader bearish sentiment in the market. The recent trading activity indicates that prices are struggling to maintain upward momentum after a brief recovery. Analysts note that the current price level of ₹98,749 follows a sharp decline, which has raised concerns about the sustainability of any potential rebounds. The short-term moving averages are signaling a bearish structure, reinforcing the idea that traders should be cautious.
The prevailing market conditions suggest that the immediate resistance levels are critical for traders to monitor. The ₹99,000 zone has been identified as a key sell-trigger level for intraday traders. This level has been tested but not convincingly breached, indicating that sellers are likely to dominate if prices approach this threshold again.
Technical Analysis Insights
A closer look at the technical indicators reveals several factors contributing to the bearish outlook. The 8-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at ₹98,735, while the 21-period EMA is positioned at ₹98,700. Prices are caught between these averages, and the failure to break above either level suggests a weak recovery structure.
Additionally, the Bollinger Bands indicate that prices have been rejecting the middle band, which typically reflects low buying strength. This behavior enhances the likelihood of prices rolling over near higher levels. The immediate pivot-based resistances are identified between ₹98,950 and ₹99,200, further supporting the bearish sentiment.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 51.98, having rebounded from lower levels but struggling to maintain momentum above 60. This mid-zone reading indicates a lack of bullish strength, reinforcing the view that any upward movements may be limited.
Market Strategy Recommendations
Given the current market dynamics, traders are encouraged to adopt a cautious approach. The prevailing sentiment suggests that selling near key resistance levels offers a favorable risk-reward setup. The recent price structure continues to follow a lower-high lower-low pattern, indicating that the bounce observed may merely be a technical pullback rather than a genuine trend reversal.
Traders should consider implementing a “Sell on Rise” strategy, particularly around the ₹99,000 mark, with a stop-loss set at ₹99,450. This strategy aims to capitalize on the anticipated downside potential, with targets set at ₹98,400 and ₹98,150. The combination of weak momentum, resistance-heavy zones, and failed recoveries above moving averages all point to the likelihood of further declines in gold prices.
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