Ukrainian Drones Disrupt 30% of Russia’s Oil Refining Capacity

A series of Ukrainian drone strikes has significantly disrupted Russia’s oil refining capacity, impacting operations at nine of the country’s 35 major refineries over the past week. These attacks have led to a reduction of approximately 30% in refining capacity since late October, according to industry sources. The affected facilities had a combined daily nameplate capacity of around 300,000 metric tonnes, equivalent to 2.2 million barrels.

The strikes targeted key refineries in central Russia, as well as facilities in Ryazan, Yaroslavl, and the Volga region. Russia’s total primary refining capacity stands at about 930,000 tonnes per day. However, by the end of October, refineries were processing around 700,000 tonnes, or five million barrels, of crude oil daily. Industry estimates suggest that the actual reduction in daily crude processing could reach 200,000 tonnes.

Domestic Fuel Shortages

The drone attacks have exacerbated Moscow’s challenges in addressing domestic fuel shortages while maintaining diesel exports under an agreement with U.S. President Donald Trump. Ukraine has intensified its strikes on Russian oil facilities following the failure of a proposed ceasefire on energy infrastructure attacks announced in late October.

In the latest incident, a Ukrainian drone struck the Kirishi oil refinery, Russia’s second-largest, on Monday night, resulting in a fire and the death of a woman, according to the governor of the Leningrad region. Meanwhile, Russian forces have continued to target Ukraine’s energy and transport infrastructure, with reports of attacks on six large electricity substations across four central Ukrainian regions.